The
Labor Market Information Division (LMI) of the Virginia Employment Commission (VEC) is a robust resource for state workforce data and labor market analysis. One of LMI’s publications,
Community Profiles, features a wealth of locality-specific information including demographic, economic and educational data.
From the perspective of Career and Technical (Vocational) Education, I find the projections of occupation decline and growth particularly interesting. The data in Albemarle County’s Community Profile (updated 1/29/10) paint an intriguing picture.
A quick analysis:
First, the declining occupations are skill-specific and the functions highly routine. Most are vanishing for one of two primary reasons: 1) they are being replaced by technology, or 2) someone overseas can do it more cheaply.
If someone can figure out the algorithm for a routine job, chances are that it is economic to automate it. Many good well-paying, middle-class jobs involve routine work of this kind and are rapidly being automated…. A swiftly rising number of American workers at every skill level are in direct competition with workers in every corner of the globe.
Occupations replaced by technology are not limited to manufacturing automation. Routine service-sector positions are also vulnerable to cheaper, faster software solutions or free online services. We can see this phenomenon illustrated in the chart below, which depicts the projected nature of work in the prototypical U.S. workplace.
In Albemarle’s case, one could assume occupations (in addition to those clearly identifiable as routine) like photographic machine operators are giving way to online distribution channels like
Flickr or upload and print services like
Shutterfly. How many of us call a local travel agent before visiting
Travelocity or
KAYAK? And, typically, the Google search bar is our travel guide. Traditionally high-wage occupations aren’t immune either, as software or online programs can replicate
routine legal or
financial services.
Secondly, most of the declining occupations listed—even if they aren’t susceptible to outsourcing or algorithms—do not offer a real opportunity for upward career or lateral academic mobility. This is problematic, as it leaves workers in a state of “square one” in the event of job loss or occupational obsolescence.
Next, let’s look at the occupations projected to continually grow:
In a direct contrast to those in decline, nearly all of these occupations offer academic and professional mobility. And, interestingly, several rungs on the respective career ladders are also projected to be high growth. For instance, one could theoretically have the following career progressions:
Veterinary Assistant –> Veterinary Technologist –> Veterinarian
Social and Human Services Assistant –> Social Worker /Mental Health Counselor –> Psychiatrist
The same mobility can be applied to the fields of healthcare, business, construction, and information technology–which are also represented at some level in Albemarle’s projected growth occupations.
The critical ingredient, though, is the option for lateral academic entry through community colleges and universities at each phase of a career progression.
What’s the likelihood of a “vocational student” progressing from veterinary assistant to veterinarian, carpenter to architect, or office assistant to executive? It doesn’t matter.
Educators cannot predict the future aspirations of current students, nor should we try. All we can do is ensure that secondary CTE programming makes future options and opportunities available. To knowingly do otherwise is not only irresponsible; it’s malpractice.
